Diplomacy Key as FOIP Vision Gains Significance

By Yuichi Hosoya / Special to The Yomiuri Shimbun

11:00 JST, April 3, 2026

The Economist magazine of the United Kingdom has described Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi as “the world’s most powerful woman.” In March, when Takaichi met U.S. President Donald Trump for a globally watched bilateral summit, she asserted her presence on the world stage by confirming with Trump that the two countries would work together toward stabilizing the situation in Iran.

After winning big in February’s snap House of Representatives election, Takaichi said, “A stable political foundation provides the strength to advance strong diplomacy.”

It is indeed difficult for an administration with a weak support base at home to exert influence in diplomacy. About 20 years ago, a succession of prime ministers, including those backed by the then Democratic Party of Japan, were each in office for only about a year. Foreign media mocked this situation, calling it a prime ministerial merry-go-round, as a different Japanese leader attended each major summit.

Nowadays, political leaders in major developed democracies are exposed to harsh public backlash and struggle with low approval ratings. In contrast, Takaichi is an exception as she maintains a high cabinet approval rating of 70%-80% in public opinion polls.

So, what kind of diplomacy will the Takaichi administration pursue with its stable political base? One clue is Takaichi’s conviction that she is the “successor” to the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who fell to an assassin’s bullets.

During a White House dinner following her summit with Trump, Takaichi proudly declared, “Japan is back,” echoing what Abe had said on an earlier visit to the United States.

This year marks the 10th year since Abe first advocated the “Free and Open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP) vision as the core of his administration’s diplomacy. For Takaichi, deepening and advancing this vision further must have significant meaning.

Attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel have heightened international tensions. Under these circumstances, the FOIP vision can be said to be even more significant, as its goal is to ensure peace, stability and prosperity in the vast region spanning from the Indian Ocean to the Pacific Ocean.

On May 14, 2025, the Liberal Democratic Party set up a task force named “the Headquarters for Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy.” Its chair is Taro Aso, a former prime minister and an ally of Abe’s who served as deputy prime minister when Abe came to power for the second time. Takaichi supports Aso as an acting chair of the panel. The speaker at its inaugural session was Takeo Akiba, a former secretary general of the National Security Secretariat who is known as the key architect of the FOIP vision.

Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara and Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi are also members of the task force. This means that the people involved in the promotion of the FOIP vision support the very backbone of the Takaichi administration.

I was invited by the headquarters to give a lecture at its second session. As a diplomatic historian, I praised the FOIP vision, calling it “the most successful diplomatic vision [for Japan] since the Meiji period” (1868-1912). I think the policy of inheriting and developing this diplomatic approach with the FOIP Strategy Headquarters at its core can be said to be timely.

Creative strategy

Takaichi repeatedly emphasized the importance of the FOIP vision during the LDP presidential race in October and later in her policy speeches to the Diet.

In her Feb. 20 policy speech before the Diet, which followed the LDP’s landslide election victory securing more than two-thirds of the lower house’s seats, Takaichi said: “[Over the past 10 years] geopolitical competition has intensified, and rapid technological innovation in areas such as AI and digital technologies, along with growing competition for dominance, has accelerated.” In light of these developments, the need for countries to strengthen their autonomy and resilience is increasing.

In Takaichi’s view, simply inheriting the vision is not enough, and therefore she can be said to have expressed her intention to update the vision to make it relevant to the latest international environment. In fact, compared to 10 years ago, when Abe floated the FOIP vision, the international situation surrounding Japan has deteriorated dramatically.

With the United States introducing a new global strategy centered around what is called “great power competition,” the U.S.-China confrontation has entered a new age of “de-risking” and “de-coupling” regarding their economic risks. Economic security has emerged as the core of foreign policy for major countries, including Japan. Moreover, there is no prospect in sight of a ceasefire in the war in Ukraine, which recently marked four years since Russia’s invasion began.

Takaichi said in her February policy speech, “Our country is facing the most severe and complex security environment of the postwar era.” Her perception is correct. How should the FOIP vision, which has been in place for 10 years now, be deepened and developed further? What should be acknowledged in the beginning is the change in the environment.

First, “cooperation with middle powers” has gained importance. When Abe was prime minister for the second time, there was still room for Japan to have dialogue with both China and Russia, and there were quite a few areas where bilateral cooperation with them was feasible. However, since Russia invaded Ukraine, Japan has imposed large-scale sanctions against it. Of the former “four major powers of the world,” the United States, China and Russia — excluding Japan — are leaning toward “changing the status quo by force,” causing the postwar free and open international order based on the “rule of law” to face its worst crisis ever.

Japan should take a leading role in strengthening international law and international organizations now that their effectiveness is wavering. It should also ramp up cooperation with like-minded countries that uphold the rule of law.

Second, the importance of “economic security” has risen. From 10 years ago until today, Japan has remained committed to supporting free trade and a multilateral international economic system. There is no need to lower this flag.

But the global free trade system is wobbling more than ever due to China’s unfair trade practices, the United States’ “America First” policy and a series of economic sanctions resulting from Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

The conflict between the United States and Iran is forcing global trade, including that of energy, into an increasingly difficult situation.

It is increasingly important to pursue a “balanced foreign economic policy” for the promotion of economic security while safeguarding the principles of free trade.

What is needed now is the evolution of strategies adapted to a new environment. As the world becomes increasingly divided and conflicts deepen, the principles of inclusiveness and diversity advocated by the FOIP vision should be of great value.

On the other hand, Takaichi also said in her latest policy speech, “With the Japan-U.S. alliance as the cornerstone, we will work hand in hand with countries with whom we share fundamental values and principles such as freedom, democracy, human rights and the rule of law.” This is based on an accurate assessment given the current international situation.

However, if the United States, which is said to have entered a “post-liberal” age under the Trump administration, continues to challenge the rule of law and democracy, it is likely to become necessary for Japan to pursue independent diplomacy different from that of the United States.

The essence of Abe’s diplomacy is the “two-front strategy” of strengthening the Japan-U.S. alliance and cooperating with countries that share the same values. If those two things converge, Japanese diplomacy will gain a strong impetus. Conversely, if they contradict each other, Japan will need to come up with autonomous and resilient creative initiatives. Considering that the latter — cooperation with like-minded countries — is gathering steam, I hope Takaichi will demonstrate originality and leadership in her diplomacy.

Yuichi Hosoya

Yuichi Hosoya is a professor of international politics at Keio University and the author of numerous books on British, European and Japanese politics and foreign affairs, including “Security Politics in Japan: Legislation for a New Security Environment.”

The original article in Japanese appeared in the March 29 issue of The Yomiuri Shimbun.