‘Might Doesn’t Make Right’ in Interdependent World

By Akihiko Tanaka / Special to The Yomiuri Shimbun

11:00 JST, April 10, 2026

The United States and Israel’s attacks on Iran have now embroiled the entire Middle East in a war characterized by the use of large quantities of missiles and drones.

Like Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, the United States and Israel are using naked force to push ahead with their own political agendas. The law-of-the-jungle aphorism of “might makes right” seems to be sweeping across the world. Does this mean that the world has entered an era in which military power alone holds sway?

I don’t think so. When observing the two wars, doubts arise about whether military power is actually helping to achieve the goals. Both wars were launched to attain political objectives in a short period of time, but things are not going as desired by those countries.

When Russia began its invasion of Ukraine, it deployed a massive ground force, believing it could occupy most of Ukraine within a few days and establish a pro-Russian regime in Kyiv.

However, Russia was forced to retreat amid Ukraine’s counterattacks, as it failed to gain air superiority — which is essential in a war to carry out operations without being hindered by one’s adversary — and its logistical capabilities were insufficient.

The Russian and Ukrainian troops later fell into a stalemate in southeast Ukraine. Russia is even now continuing to attack Ukraine with missiles and drones, but Ukraine hasn’t yielded. Rather, Ukraine has strengthened its drone-manufacturing capability and launched counterattacks into Russian territory.

The United States and Israel seem to have established air superiority over Iran just a few days into their offensive. Their forces have also killed many Iranian leaders, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Initially, there was speculation by the United States and Israel that regime change in Tehran could happen at any moment. Nonetheless, Iran has not surrendered and is instead continuously staging counterattacks on other Middle Eastern countries that host U.S. military bases.

Moreover, Iran has declared a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, taking bold steps to choke off supplies from the Gulf area to the rest of the world, and the United States has been unable to take any effective countermeasures against this.

In other words, these two wars show that no matter how overwhelming the difference in military power between the two sides is, it is not so easy to force an opposing country that resolutely resists to accept political demands in a short period of time, let alone force it to “unconditionally surrender.”

It’s true that the U.S. operation to capture Venezuela’s then supreme leader succeeded in just a single day. But this should be regarded as an unusual success. In the modern world, it appears to be quite difficult to achieve political objectives of great significance solely through the use of destructive physical force.

There are several factors that make it difficult to accomplish political objectives through destructive physical force or threats.

The first factor is the opposing country’s firm resolve not to yield. Ukraine, for instance, has maintained its resolute stance not to capitulate to Russia’s unjustifiable demands, in spite of the United States’ calls for a ceasefire. In Iran, the Israeli intelligence agency apparently expected to see moves to topple its leadership from within emerge right after the beginning of the U.S.-Israeli attacks, but no such thing has happened, even after the killing of many leaders.

Second, international norms regarding military action during conflicts are still in effect to a certain degree, although they have been weakened. There have been many civilian casualties in Ukraine and the Middle East, and military activities condemned as war crimes have often been observed. Nevertheless, no countries have publicly declared their intention to kill civilians in large numbers, and situations like the indiscriminate air raids in World War II have been avoided so far.

Attacks that unceasingly target civilians face strong backlash from international public opinion. In democratic countries, such attacks would face strong opposition from the public. These constraints can also be seen as factors that make it easier for resistance to persist.

Third, the asymmetry of the weapons and tactics used in modern warfare is also significant. Even if a country cannot defeat an attacker using the same types of weapons or tactics, it may still be able to counter them by employing different types of weapons or tactics. The drones being heavily used in these two wars are a case in point. The use of many drones, which are significantly cheaper than highly advanced air defense systems like the Patriot, can be effective in inflicting some damage on a hostile country. If Iran says it will lay inexpensive mines to block the Strait of Hormuz, ship operators will inevitably hesitate to travel through the waterway even if there are not a large number of mines.

Effect of interdependence

Fourth, global economic interdependence reduces the use of destructive force and mitigates the impact of intimidation. The interdependence of the global economy is complex. Even if there are no deep economic ties with a hostile nation, a country that takes military action will face various economic repercussions. Russia has been hit with economic sanctions by a host of countries that object to its attacks on Ukraine, for example.

The United States itself is hardly dependent on Middle Eastern crude oil, but Iran’s counterattacks on other Gulf nations and the Islamic Republic’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz have sent Middle Eastern crude oil prices soaring. As crude oil prices tend to move in sync globally, gasoline prices in the United States have also surged.

A spike in energy prices leads to spiraling prices for other products and supply constraints. Stock markets react to concerns about these situations, fluctuating wildly as people get excited or discouraged regarding the course of the war. If the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is prolonged, the situation could bring about a crisis far more serious for the global economy than the oil crises of the 1970s.

Of course, the fact that there are economic repercussions does not guarantee that military action will not occur. Despite having been subjected to economic sanctions for about four years now, Russia is not serious about entering genuine peace negotiations with Ukraine. Israel continues fighting as if it doesn’t care about the turmoil in the world economy.

However, it has to be pointed out that unless the target country yields, the cost of severing economic interdependence will irrationally increase to a degree unjustified by the original political objective. This is because the cost continues to mount while the objective remains unachieved.

To put it another way, the jungle-like modern world is not a simple environment of survival of the fittest. It isn’t a simple zero-sum world even in situations where interests conflict.

In that world, depending on how adversaries react, the situation for both sides can get worse than it was before military action was taken.

The outbreak of the war in Ukraine and that in the Middle East has worsened the circumstances of all the countries involved. In short, military power doesn’t help achieve political objectives.

Needless to say, it isn’t easy to end a war once it starts, since nations, too, don’t always act rationally. However, the continuation of the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East will bring nothing but harm to not only the countries directly involved but also the entire world.

The most rational choice in both wars is first and foremost to achieve a ceasefire. It is crucial to persuade the countries directly involved of this.

Akihiko Tanaka

Tanaka is president of the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), a post he took up in April 2022 for the second time after his first stint from 2012 to 2015. He also served as vice president of the University of Tokyo from 2009 to 2012. He was president of the Tokyo-based National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies (GRIPS) from 2017 to March 2022.

The original article in Japanese appeared in the April 5 issue of The Yomiuri Shimbun.