Glimpse into China’s Decision-Making Process Over Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Taiwan Remark

By Yuta Abe and Toru Inoue / Yomiuri Shimbun Staff Writers

2:01 JST, March 24, 2026

Chinese criticism of Japan on social media has been analyzed using artificial intelligence, offering a glimpse into the decision-making process of the administration of Chinese President Xi Jinping following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s remark last November on a possible Taiwan contingency.

Through interviews with Japanese and Chinese government officials, The Yomiuri Shimbun examined the six days of silence identified by AI.

Wait-and-see approach

“There is no need to attack Takaichi too aggressively.”

According to a source connected to the Chinese government, Chinese Communist Party leaders instructed officials to take a wait-and-see approach immediately after the prime minister’s response to a question in the Diet on Nov. 7 last year.

China lodged a protest with the Japanese government after Takaichi said that a Chinese maritime blockade of Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan under its security-related legislation.

At a House of Representatives Budget Committee session three days later on Nov. 10, Takaichi said, “I will refrain from explicitly commenting on specific scenarios from now on.”

Afterward, Chinese officials viewed her comment as a possible “change in posture,” the source said.

An analysis of posts on X — conducted with the startup Sakana AI — found that Chinese Communist Party-affiliated accounts made only a handful of posts accusing Japan of “interference in the Taiwan issue and meddling in internal affairs” from Nov. 7 through Nov. 9.

The number rose on Nov. 10, when a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson referred to the remark at a press conference, but dropped back down to only a few posts the next day on Nov. 11.

Taking stronger stance

Then, on Nov. 13, China’s Foreign Ministry summoned Kenji Kanasugi, the Japanese ambassador to China, to lodge a protest, abruptly hardening its stance.

An AI analysis of a vast volume of posts on X and the Chinese social media platform Weibo indicated that Nov. 13 was the date that China began a large-scale cognitive warfare campaign.

The AI suggested that China’s strategy toward Japan may have unfolded in three stages: consideration, which took place from Nov. 7 through Nov. 9; an initial public signal, which was the press conference on Nov. 10; and a full-scale launch, which started on Nov. 13.

According to a source connected to the Chinese government, Xi gave instructions to summon Kanasugi. In its official announcement, China said the vice foreign minister had summoned the ambassador “under instructions from higher authorities.” A social media account affiliated with China’s state broadcaster emphasized that the summons represented the will of the state.

The same source said Foreign Minister Wang Yi and others had advised Xi that the remark was “a deliberate act of provocation” and required “the strongest possible warning.”

The source also said the stronger stance reflected online nationalist sentiment in China criticizing the Foreign Ministry as being too weak.

Within China, the move was the signal to begin criticizing Japan more broadly.

Messages intensified, including one X post from the Chinese Embassy in Japan that said, “If Japan attempts armed intervention in the Taiwan situation, China will certainly strike back and deliver a heavy blow.”

Among 55 Chinese Communist Party-affiliated accounts, the number of posts on Nov. 19 swelled to about 10 times the daily average from Nov. 7 through Nov. 9.

Consul general’s post

A Japanese government official also believes China changed course because “information was reported to Xi, and he likely concluded that [Takaichi’s remark] was a problem.”

Another official said, “There is no doubt that immediately after [Takaichi’s] remark, China’s Foreign Ministry did not want to make it a major issue.”

The official said the reason for this was that it would have implied that holding the Japan-China summit at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in October last year, just before the remark was made, had been a mistake. It would have potentially placed blame on Wang and others who had proposed the summit.

However, the post in Japanese on X by Xue Jian, China’s consul general in Osaka, that “there would be no choice but to cut off that filthy head without a moment’s hesitation” was unexpected. The comment quickly fueled calls in Japan for Xue to be declared persona non grata and expelled.

A senior Japanese Foreign Ministry official speculated that Xue’s irregular post left Wang and others with no choice but to report everything to Xi.